28 July 2017
Country Risk Analysis 2: Macro-Economic Risk Indicators, Causal Chain Tool and Recession Scenarios for China
The economic recession in Brazil, the unusual budget deficit of Saudi Arabia and the uncertain growth prospects of China underline the continued importance of country risk analysis for companies. This course teaches you the skills necessary to study country risks in Emerging Markets from an economic perspective, with a special focus on China’s future growth path. What are the most important macro-economic risk indicators? How are they linked to other indicators and country risk? And under which circumstances would China, the world’s long-time growth engine, end up in a recession? To answer these questions, you do two individual assignments in which you analyse data for one macro-economic risk indicator from Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa. Another individual assignment concerns the use of the causal chain tool to visualize how a change in a particular indicator would affect country risk directly and indirectly. In a final group assignment, you develop scenarios in which China’s economic growth rate goes down and eventually becomes negative. You present all your findings in class. Interactive lectures and roundtable discussions help you prepare for your assignments.
Leonhardt van Efferink
▪ Designing an analytical framework to study the macro-economic risks in Emerging Markets
▪ Comparing the macro-economic risks of different nation-states
▪ Developing worst-case scenarios for China’s economy and reflecting on their impact on other countries and the world economy
EUR 600: Course