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Economics

Attention, Memory and Expectations

When:

29 July - 30 July 2025

School:

ISEG Winter School

Institution:

ISEG-ULisboa

City:

Lisbon

Country:

Portugal

Language:

English

Fee:

160 EUR

Early Bird deadline 15 May 2025
Interested?
Attention, Memory and Expectations

About

Abstract: The mounting evidence of systematic errors in expectations-from consumers' inflation expectations to professional forecasters' projections of firm-level and macroeconomic variables-stresses the need to go beyond the rational-expectations paradigm. This raises crucial questions: How are expectations actually formed, and what role do expectation errors play in shaping market outcomes?

In these lectures, we will build on the rapidly expanding literature to:

1. explore the cognitive mechanisms- memory and attention-that underline expectation formation, and develop a tractable, theory-based approach to examine expectations' drivers and departures from rationality

2. Analyze the implications for key puzzles in finance and macroeconomics:

In finance, we'll discuss return predictability in both the aggregate stock market and cross-sectionally, without relying on exotic required returns.
In macroeconomics, we'll examine how predictable expectation errors shed light on credit and business cycles.
3. Demonstrate the importance of new types of data-such as those on individual experiences and attention to specific features-in predicting expectations, offering insights into how surveys can be designed to better elicit them.

In summary, significant progress is being made in understanding expectations and linking departures from rationality to major questions in economics. Advances in measuring expectations, particularly through new types of data, hold great promise for further progress

Course leader

Pedro Bordalo - Oxford University - UK

Target group

The “ISEG Summer School 2025” includes a total of 4 courses, aimed at Masters students, PhD students, Researchers and University Professors, as well as other Executive Staff in the Public and Business Administration sectors of the State and the Private Sector, which, similarly to the previous editions previous ones, aim to present and discuss the most recent theoretical and empirical advances in each of the selected scientific areas

Fee info

Fee

160 EUR, Early bird (until May 15, 2025) for general public

Fee

130 EUR, Early bird (until May 15, 2025) for students

Interested?

When:

29 July - 30 July 2025

School:

ISEG Winter School

Institution:

ISEG-ULisboa

Language:

English

Early Bird deadline 15 May 2025 Visit school

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